Outlook

Market environment

In 2024, OMV expects the average Brent crude oil price to be around USD 80/bbl (2023: USD 83/bbl). For 2024, the average realized gas price is anticipated to be around EUR 25/MWh (2023: EUR 29/MWh), with a THE price forecast of between EUR 30/MWh and 35/MWh (2023: EUR 41/MWh).

Group

In 2024, organic CAPEX*Organic capital expenditure is defined as capital expenditure including capitalized Exploration and Appraisal expenditure and excluding acquisitions and contingent considerations. is projected to come in at around EUR 3.8 bn (2023: EUR 3.7 bn), including non-cash effective CAPEX related to leases of around EUR 0.2 bn.

Chemicals & Materials

In 2024, the ethylene indicator margin Europe is expected to be around EUR 490/t (2023: EUR 507/t). The propylene indicator margin Europe is forecast at around EUR 370/t (2023: EUR 389/t).

In 2024, the steam cracker utilization rate in Europe is expected to be around 85% (2023: 80%).

In 2024, the polyethylene indicator margin Europe is forecast to be around EUR 320/t (2023: EUR 322/t). The polypropylene indicator margin Europe is expected to be around EUR 320/t (2023: EUR 355/t).

In 2024, the polyethylene sales volumes excluding JVs are projected to be around 1.9 mn t (2023: 1.63 mn t). The polypropylene sales volumes excluding JVs are expected to be around 2.0 mn t (2023: 1.86 mn t).

Organic CAPEX related to Chemicals & Materials is predicted to be around EUR 1.0 bn in 2024 (2023: EUR 1.2 bn).

Fuels & Feedstock

In 2024, the OMV refining indicator margin Europe is expected to be around USD 8/bbl (2023: USD 11.7/bbl).

In 2024, fuels and other sales volumes in OMV’s markets in Europe are projected to be higher than in 2023 (2023: 16.3 mn t). Commercial margins are forecast to be below those in 2023. Retail margins are forecast to be slightly below the 2023 level.

In 2024, the utilization rate of the European refineries is expected to be around 95% (2023: 85%).

Organic CAPEX in Fuels & Feedstock is forecast at around EUR 0.8 bn in 2024 (2023: EUR 1.0 bn).

Energy

OMV expects total hydrocarbon production in 2024 to be between 330 kboe/d and 350 kboe/d (2023: 364 kboe/d), depending on the timing of the divestment of the assets in Malaysia, the situation in Libya, and also due to natural decline.

Organic CAPEX for Energy is anticipated to come in at around EUR 1.9 bn in 2024 (2023: EUR 1.5 bn).

In 2024, Exploration and Appraisal (E&A) expenditure is expected to be around EUR 200 mn (2023: EUR 248 mn).

For information about the longer-term outlook, see the Strategy chapter.