Outlook

On January 1, 2023, the Group introduced a new corporate structure, designed to fully enable the delivery of Strategy 2030. Following the reorganization and starting from Q1/23, the Group will report on the following business segments: Chemicals & Materials, Fuels & Feedstock (former Refining & Marketing), and Energy (former Exploration & Production). As part of the introduction of the new corporate structure, Gas & Power Eastern Europe, which includes Supply, Marketing, and Trading of gas in Romania and Turkey and one gas-fired power plant in Romania, was transferred from Fuels & Feedstock to the Energy business segment.

Market environment

In 2023, OMV expects the average Brent crude oil price to be above USD 80/bbl (2022: USD 101/bbl). For 2023, the average realized gas price is anticipated to be around EUR 35/MWh (2022: EUR 54/MWh), with a THE price forecast between EUR 60/MWh and EUR 70/MWh (2022: EUR 122/MWh).

Group

In 2023, organic CAPEX*Organic capital expenditure is defined as capital expenditure including capitalized Exploration and Appraisal expenditure and excluding acquisitions and contingent considerations. is projected to come in at around EUR 3.7 bn (2022: EUR 3.7 bn), including non-cash effective CAPEX related to leases of around EUR 0.2 bn.

Chemicals & Materials

In 2023, the ethylene indicator margin Europe is expected to be around EUR 530/t (2022: EUR 560/t). The propylene indicator margin Europe is expected to be around EUR 480/t (2022: EUR 534/t).

In 2023, the steam cracker utilization rate in Europe is expected to be around 90% (2022: 74%). Turnarounds are planned at the Schwechat cracker in Q2 and at the Porvoo cracker in Q3.

In 2023, the polyethylene indicator margin Europe is forecast to be around EUR 350/t (2022: EUR 390/t). The polypropylene indicator margin Europe is expected to be around EUR 400/t (2022: EUR 486/t).

In 2023, the polyethylene sales volumes excluding JVs are projected to be around 1.8 mn t (2022: 1.69 mn t). The polypropylene sales volumes excluding JVs are expected to be around 2 mn t (2022: 1.84 mn t).

Organic CAPEX related to Chemicals & Materials is predicted to be around EUR 1.1 bn in 2023 (2022: EUR 1.4 bn).

Fuels & Feedstock

In 2023, the OMV refining indicator margin Europe is expected to be between USD 10/bbl and USD 15/bbl (2022: USD 14.7/bbl).

In 2023, fuels and other sales volumes in OMV’s markets in Europe are projected to be slightly higher than in 2022 (2022: 15.5 mn t). Commercial margins are forecast to be above those in 2022. Retail margins are forecast to be around the 2022 level.

In 2023, the utilization rate of the European refineries is expected to be around 95% (2022: 73%). A turnaround at the Petrobrazi refinery is planned in Q2.

Organic CAPEX in Fuels & Feedstock is forecast at around EUR 1.0 bn in 2023 (2022: EUR 0.8 bn).

Energy

OMV expects total production to be around 360 kboe/d in 2023 (2022: 392 kboe/d) due to the exclusion of the Russian volumes and natural decline, in particular in Norway and Romania.

Organic CAPEX for Energy is anticipated to come in at around EUR 1.6 bn in 2023 (2022: EUR 1.4 bn).

Exploration and Appraisal (E&A) expenditure is expected to be between EUR 200 mn and EUR 250 mn (2022: EUR 202 mn).

For information about the longer-term outlook, see the Strategy chapter.