During 2024, most of the major central banks started easing monetary conditions in response to easing price pressure and concerns over slowing growth, while the conflict in Ukraine continued for the third year. Brent prices remained fairly range-bound, while gas prices continued moderating compared to 2023, resulting in less price pressure on consumers. Nevertheless, muted growth prospects remained a key concern in markets, including for oil, where the extensive market management by the OPEC+ group has become a strong driving factor for prices again. These issues are expected to remain central in 2025, while ongoing geopolitical conflicts are also likely to continue to be the focus of markets.
The need to combat inflation eased in 2024, and consequently most major central banks started lowering interest rates. Lower rates provide relief to economies by reducing the cost of borrowing for corporations, governments, and individuals. This is expected to support economic recovery in the medium term. Headwinds were mostly seen in the European Union as weak manufacturing output kept the economy under pressure; meanwhile, the US economy was more supported by stronger consumption.
The Brent price remained broadly stable compared to 2023, with intra-year trends showing stronger fundamentals in the first half of the year and gradually weakening in the second half. Crude flat prices were increasingly under pressure, with concerns about global oil demand escalating as major forecasting agencies revised short-term outlooks multiple times during the year. Due to increasing pressure on prices, OPEC+ also delayed increasing its production.
Natural gas benchmarks continued reverting toward historical values, following the spike in 2022 at the start of the Ukraine-Russia war. In the first half of the year, lower price levels provided some relief to the European industrial sector. However, prices in the second half were on a rising trajectory as supply uncertainties and the prospects of a colder winter provided renewed support to prices.
In 2024, refinery margins declined to historical values from the highs of 2022 and 2023. European refinery margins were still at elevated levels at the start of the year, but margins retreated gradually throughout the year. Decline was predominantly driven by the normalization of middle distillate crack spreads, which benefited the most after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Motor gasoline crack spreads were also increasingly under pressure from weak demand and from potential new supply from Nigeria’s Dangote refinery. In 2025, the outlook for the refinery margin is moderate, as the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects global liquids demand growth to be around 1 mn bbl/dIEA Oil Market Report, December 2024 , which is significantly lower than in previous years and the historical average. New additions to refinery capacity are exerting further pressure on the markets, which forces consolidation in European production where the long-term demand outlook is the most conservative.
For the medium and longer term, the path of the energy transition and the decarbonization of the economy remain sources of contention and uncertainty. The trend of cumulative increases in national, regional, municipal, and corporate pledges to decarbonize energy systems and economies continued in 2024. According to the University of Oxford’s Carbon Tracker, an estimated 93% of global GDP is now covered by a net zero pledge. In the corporate world, almost 60% of the largest companies by global revenue have now made some level of commitment to achieving net zero emissions. 47% of the monitored companies have a net zero target as part of their corporate strategy.
In the most recent World Energy Outlook, the IEA showed an upward revision in renewable power generation, battery capacities, and hydrogen, but a downward revision on the fossil fuel side halted in the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS). Assuming all environmental pledges are met, the agency expects a more bullish outlook for coal until 2030, while LNG demand outlook has been revised higher for both the medium and long term. The outlook for oil remained broadly stable. Scenarios that achieve net zero emissions for the global energy system by 2050 require even faster deployment of low-carbon technologies and more aggressive reductions in fossil fuel demand. There are certainly risks that the energy transition may occur at a slower pace, leading to a more extended use of fossil fuel commodities and slower deployment of alternative technologies. In these scenarios, the global temperature increase is expected to exceed 2°C by 2100 compared to pre-industrial levels.
World total primary energy supply
In EJ
In the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), the average annual growth rate of 0.75% in total energy demand up to 2030 is around half the rate of the energy demand growth of the last decade. Demand continues to increase through to 2050. In the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), total energy demand flattens, thanks to improved efficiency and the inherent efficiency advantages of technologies powered by electricity – such as electric vehicles and heat pumps – over fossil fuel-based alternatives. In the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario, electrification and efficiency gains proceed even faster, leading to an average decline in primary energy of 1.3% per year up to 2030.
More details about OMV’s scenario analysis can be found in the Sustainability Statement (Environmental Information) and in the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements (Note 3 – Effects of climate change and the energy transition).
Global olefin1 demand
In mn t
1 Ethylene and propylene
Oil demand for chemical production is expected to increase, primarily originating from rising demand in emerging markets and closely linked to GDP development. By 2030, oil demand for chemical production will rise by about 3% per year. 75% of chemical and plastic demand growth will be concentrated in emerging markets, mainly Asia, up to 2030 and beyond. This region represents most of the global population growth and the corresponding potential for improving living standards. For mature markets such as Europe, North America, and Japan, demand growth is anticipated to remain healthy in the long term, in line with economic development, but growth rates are expected to slow.
Global polyolefin demand (virgin and recycled)
In mn t
Polyolefins is the largest market segment in producing plastic goods. Demand for virgin polyolefins will continue to grow at a rate above global GDP until 2030, driven by the Asian market. Polyolefins will remain essential for various industries, including packaging, construction, transportation, healthcare, pharmaceuticals, and electronics. The key success factor for medium- to long-term sustainable business models is growth in renewable feedstocks, bioplastics, and the development of circular solutions. Recycled polyolefin demand is expected to grow at a rate more than three times faster than global GDP until 2030, with Asia having the largest share.