Outlook

Market environment

For 2020, OMV expects the average Brent oil price to amount to USD 60/bbl (2019: USD 64/bbl). The average realized gas price is anticipated to be lower in 2020 compared to the previous year (2019: EUR 11.9/MWh).

Group

In 2020, organic CAPEX (including capitalized exploration and appraisal expenditure and excluding acquisitions) is projected to come in at EUR 2.4 bn (2019: EUR 2.3 bn).

Upstream

OMV expects total production to be around 500 kboe/d in 2020 (2019: 487 kboe/d), depending on the security situation in Libya. Organic CAPEX for Upstream (including capitalized exploration and appraisal expenditure and excluding acquisitions) is anticipated to come in at around EUR 1.6 bn in 2020 (2019: EUR 1.6 bn). In 2020, the exploration and appraisal expenditure is expected to total EUR 350 mn (2019: EUR 360 mn).

Downstream

In 2020, the refining indicator margin is expected to be above USD 5/bbl (2019: USD 4.4/bbl). The petrochemical margins are anticipated to come in slightly below EUR 400/t (2019: EUR 433/t). Total refined product sales are forecasted to be on a similar level to 2019 in 2020 (2019: 20.9 mn t). In OMV’s markets, retail and commercial margins are predicted to be slightly lower in 2020 than those in 2019. There is no major turnaround planned for our refineries in Europe in 2020. Therefore, the utilization rate of the European refineries is expected to be around 95% (2019: 97%).

Natural gas sales volumes in 2020 are projected to be above 2019 levels (2019: 137 TWh). Natural gas sales margins will likely at least reach the prior-year level.

The outbreak of coronavirus (COVID-19) and the efforts to contain it are expected to affect the global economy and, as a result, to have an impact on prices and demand of oil products and crude oil; however, as it is not possible to quantify it at this moment, such impact is not included in the outlook above.

For information about the longer-term outlook, see Strategy.